photo © 2011 WEBN-TV | more info (via: Wylio)The Oscars - 2011
It’s Oscars Eve, and time for my annual predictions. I could write on and on about how this is the Superbowl of movies, the epitome of my previous year, and so on - but I won’t bore you. I am simply going to go through each major category, and say what will win, what should win, what should have been nominated, and who/what shouldn’t be there. I will also predict every other category. The numbers indicate how many of the nominees that I've seen.
To see a full list of nominees, click HERE.
Best Picture (10/10):
This is an interesting race, with ten solid films nominated. Of the ten, only five are serious contenders (The Fighter, Black Swan, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit) - the films that were also nominated for Best Director. Of these five, awards season has made it clear that it was a two-way race between The King’s Speech and The Social Network, with those two being virtually the only two that earned the various “best film” honors at other shows with similar voting pools.
Will Win: The Social Network - Many say The King’s Speech will ride various guild awards to an Oscar win, but I still think TSN will take it. I could be wrong, but that’s my prediction.
Should Win: Toy Story 3 - Due to the best animated film category, lack of a Best Director nomination, and a poor history for animated best picture contenders, there is no chance it will win. But it should. It was the most emotionally moving film, and did this while being accessible to all movie goers.
Should Have Been Nominated: Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World - I’m never done praising this movie, and it would be great for the Academy to recognize more than just one super surreal crazy inventive film (the other one is Inception...although Black Swan might count).
Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated: The Kids Are All Right - I liked this movie, but it was overrated. I actually felt the movie didn’t treat it’s characters with respect they deserved, and while it’s a good movie, it’s not a great one.
Best Director (5/5):
Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network - Tom Hooper of The King’s Speech has a chance, but not a very good one. Whether or not TSN wins best picture, Fincher is a pretty sure thing here...pretty sure.
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan - This movie was directed so well, that in weaker hands it would have just come off as absurd.
Should Have Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan, Inception - I don’t know what this guy needs to do to get nominated. He directs well made, original movies that gross huge amounts of money, and still, he’s left out of the party. One day.
Shouldn’t Be Here: David O. Russell, The Fighter - The movie in general lacked something for me - originality. I didn’t find anything overly special in the direction. It’s really a crime that he’s here, and Nolan is not.
Best Actress (5/5):
Will and Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan - No doubt. People are buzzing that Annette Bening could upset, but that really would be criminal. What Portman did in Black Swan is the definition of Oscar worthy.
Should Have Been Nominated: Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - I don’t know how the Academy could forget such a brilliant performance.
Shouldn’t Be Here: Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine - She did a great job, but putting her head-to-head with Rapace, she loses.
Best Actor (5/5):
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech - The closest thing to a lock in the acting categories, Firth turned in a very strong title perfomance.
Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours - Franco WAS 127 Hours. Without a strong center, the film would have been terrible. His performance reminded me of Tom Hanks in Cast Away. And I mean that as a compliment.
Should Have Been Nominated: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine - I really appreciated the work Gosling turned in with Blue Valentine, and he was much better than...
Shouldn’t Be Here: Jeff Bridges, True Grit - Okay, seriously. All Bridges did was put on a cowboy hat and play the same role he did last year when he won (and rightly so) for Crazy Heart.
Best Supporting Actress (5/5):
Will Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter - A few weeks ago, she was a lock. Then she ran some controversial ads in film periodicals, and now things are nowhere near as positive. A lot of her supporters may jump ship and go with Amy Adams also in The Fighter. If this happens, their votes will split giving True Grit fans a victory with awarding Hailee Steinfeld the Oscar. This very well might happen. But I am still sticking with Leo. Last year Mo’nique ticked a lot of people off during awards season, and she still won.
Should Win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom - Yeah, I know, I haven’t shut up about her performance all awards season, so this is the last time I will say it - Weaver deserves this more than anyone.
Should Have Been Nominated: Rosamund Pike, Barney’s Version - I haven’t reviewed this movie on my blog yet (I loved it), but Pike was tremendous. She wasn’t better than Weaver in my opinion, but she brought something special to this little seen film. I would have also liked to have seen Barbara Hershey for Black Swan.
Shouldn’t Be Here: Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech - She was great, just not as good as the rest in her category, and, in my opinion, Pike and Hershey as mentioned above.
Best Supporting Actor (5/5):
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter - Bale was excellent as a drugged-up boxer, the brother of Mickey Ward. Personally I thought his character was a little too over the top, but I still think he was tremendous.
Should Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech - I think when the ‘best supporting actor’ award was invented, it was to honor performances exactly like this. Rush was perfect as the speech therapist who supported the king. I loved this part so much, and I hope he wins.
Should Have Been Nominated: Bill Murray, Get Low - I liked Get Low, and that was in large part to Murray's pitch-perfect comedic performance.
Shouldn't Be Here: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right - He was very good, just not as good as Murray..
And in the other categories....
Animated Feature Film (3/3): Toy Story 3 should and will win.
Art Direction (4/5): Alice in Wonderland will and should win.
Cinematography (5/5): True Grit will and should win.
Costume Design (3/5): Alice in Wonderland will win, and I could care less.
Documentary Feature (3/5): I haven’t seen all the nominees, but Inside Job will win, whereas I loved Exit Through the Gift Shop.
Documentary Short Subject(0/5): Poster Girl will win, but I haven’t seen any of them.
Film Editing (5/5): The Social Network will win, Black Swan should win.
Foreign Language Film (1/5): In a Better World will win, and I’ve only seen Biutiful and it doesn’t deserve to win.
Makeup (3/3): The Wolfman will win, but I would love to see Barney’s Version win something.
Music Score (5/5): The Social Network will win, but I liked the score best in How to Train Your Dragon.
Music Original Song (4/4): “If I Rise” from 127 Hours will and should win.
Animated Short Film (5/5): The Gruffalo will win, but I think The Lost Thing should - it’s so amazing.
Live Action Short Film (5/5): Wish 143 will win, and I’m okay with that as it’s really good, but my favorite of all the nominees was The Crush. I would be angry if Na Wewe won - it sounded great in the bio but was terrible. Should not have been nominated. Many are predicting that The Confession will win, but I really thought it was poorly done - a good idea though - but poorly done.
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (10/10): Both will go to Inception and while I am no expert on these categories, I would say it’s deserved.
Visual Effects (4/5): Inception will win, and it should. I was very happy though to see a nomination for Hereafter. The tsunami scene at the beginning was the single best visual effects scene of the year.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) (5/5): The Social Network will win, but I would prefer a victory for 127 Hours.
Writing (Original Screenplay) (5/5): The King’s Speech will win, but I think Inception should.
All right, that’s my round up. I’ve seen all of the major nominees, but missed out on most of the documentaries and foreign films as the majority haven’t even opened up near me. That’s okay, can’t catch them all. I cannot wait to see how everything goes down tomorrow night!! Thoughts?
Best Picture (10/10):
This is an interesting race, with ten solid films nominated. Of the ten, only five are serious contenders (The Fighter, Black Swan, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit) - the films that were also nominated for Best Director. Of these five, awards season has made it clear that it was a two-way race between The King’s Speech and The Social Network, with those two being virtually the only two that earned the various “best film” honors at other shows with similar voting pools.
Will Win: The Social Network - Many say The King’s Speech will ride various guild awards to an Oscar win, but I still think TSN will take it. I could be wrong, but that’s my prediction.
Should Win: Toy Story 3 - Due to the best animated film category, lack of a Best Director nomination, and a poor history for animated best picture contenders, there is no chance it will win. But it should. It was the most emotionally moving film, and did this while being accessible to all movie goers.
Should Have Been Nominated: Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World - I’m never done praising this movie, and it would be great for the Academy to recognize more than just one super surreal crazy inventive film (the other one is Inception...although Black Swan might count).
Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated: The Kids Are All Right - I liked this movie, but it was overrated. I actually felt the movie didn’t treat it’s characters with respect they deserved, and while it’s a good movie, it’s not a great one.
Best Director (5/5):
Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network - Tom Hooper of The King’s Speech has a chance, but not a very good one. Whether or not TSN wins best picture, Fincher is a pretty sure thing here...pretty sure.
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan - This movie was directed so well, that in weaker hands it would have just come off as absurd.
Should Have Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan, Inception - I don’t know what this guy needs to do to get nominated. He directs well made, original movies that gross huge amounts of money, and still, he’s left out of the party. One day.
Shouldn’t Be Here: David O. Russell, The Fighter - The movie in general lacked something for me - originality. I didn’t find anything overly special in the direction. It’s really a crime that he’s here, and Nolan is not.
Best Actress (5/5):
Will and Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan - No doubt. People are buzzing that Annette Bening could upset, but that really would be criminal. What Portman did in Black Swan is the definition of Oscar worthy.
Should Have Been Nominated: Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - I don’t know how the Academy could forget such a brilliant performance.
Shouldn’t Be Here: Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine - She did a great job, but putting her head-to-head with Rapace, she loses.
Best Actor (5/5):
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech - The closest thing to a lock in the acting categories, Firth turned in a very strong title perfomance.
Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours - Franco WAS 127 Hours. Without a strong center, the film would have been terrible. His performance reminded me of Tom Hanks in Cast Away. And I mean that as a compliment.
Should Have Been Nominated: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine - I really appreciated the work Gosling turned in with Blue Valentine, and he was much better than...
Shouldn’t Be Here: Jeff Bridges, True Grit - Okay, seriously. All Bridges did was put on a cowboy hat and play the same role he did last year when he won (and rightly so) for Crazy Heart.
Best Supporting Actress (5/5):
Will Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter - A few weeks ago, she was a lock. Then she ran some controversial ads in film periodicals, and now things are nowhere near as positive. A lot of her supporters may jump ship and go with Amy Adams also in The Fighter. If this happens, their votes will split giving True Grit fans a victory with awarding Hailee Steinfeld the Oscar. This very well might happen. But I am still sticking with Leo. Last year Mo’nique ticked a lot of people off during awards season, and she still won.
Should Win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom - Yeah, I know, I haven’t shut up about her performance all awards season, so this is the last time I will say it - Weaver deserves this more than anyone.
Should Have Been Nominated: Rosamund Pike, Barney’s Version - I haven’t reviewed this movie on my blog yet (I loved it), but Pike was tremendous. She wasn’t better than Weaver in my opinion, but she brought something special to this little seen film. I would have also liked to have seen Barbara Hershey for Black Swan.
Shouldn’t Be Here: Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech - She was great, just not as good as the rest in her category, and, in my opinion, Pike and Hershey as mentioned above.
Best Supporting Actor (5/5):
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter - Bale was excellent as a drugged-up boxer, the brother of Mickey Ward. Personally I thought his character was a little too over the top, but I still think he was tremendous.
Should Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech - I think when the ‘best supporting actor’ award was invented, it was to honor performances exactly like this. Rush was perfect as the speech therapist who supported the king. I loved this part so much, and I hope he wins.
Should Have Been Nominated: Bill Murray, Get Low - I liked Get Low, and that was in large part to Murray's pitch-perfect comedic performance.
Shouldn't Be Here: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right - He was very good, just not as good as Murray..
And in the other categories....
Animated Feature Film (3/3): Toy Story 3 should and will win.
Art Direction (4/5): Alice in Wonderland will and should win.
Cinematography (5/5): True Grit will and should win.
Costume Design (3/5): Alice in Wonderland will win, and I could care less.
Documentary Feature (3/5): I haven’t seen all the nominees, but Inside Job will win, whereas I loved Exit Through the Gift Shop.
Documentary Short Subject(0/5): Poster Girl will win, but I haven’t seen any of them.
Film Editing (5/5): The Social Network will win, Black Swan should win.
Foreign Language Film (1/5): In a Better World will win, and I’ve only seen Biutiful and it doesn’t deserve to win.
Makeup (3/3): The Wolfman will win, but I would love to see Barney’s Version win something.
Music Score (5/5): The Social Network will win, but I liked the score best in How to Train Your Dragon.
Music Original Song (4/4): “If I Rise” from 127 Hours will and should win.
Animated Short Film (5/5): The Gruffalo will win, but I think The Lost Thing should - it’s so amazing.
Live Action Short Film (5/5): Wish 143 will win, and I’m okay with that as it’s really good, but my favorite of all the nominees was The Crush. I would be angry if Na Wewe won - it sounded great in the bio but was terrible. Should not have been nominated. Many are predicting that The Confession will win, but I really thought it was poorly done - a good idea though - but poorly done.
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (10/10): Both will go to Inception and while I am no expert on these categories, I would say it’s deserved.
Visual Effects (4/5): Inception will win, and it should. I was very happy though to see a nomination for Hereafter. The tsunami scene at the beginning was the single best visual effects scene of the year.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) (5/5): The Social Network will win, but I would prefer a victory for 127 Hours.
Writing (Original Screenplay) (5/5): The King’s Speech will win, but I think Inception should.
All right, that’s my round up. I’ve seen all of the major nominees, but missed out on most of the documentaries and foreign films as the majority haven’t even opened up near me. That’s okay, can’t catch them all. I cannot wait to see how everything goes down tomorrow night!! Thoughts?
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