The 2011 Oscar Predictions

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The Oscars - 2011

It’s Oscars Eve, and time for my annual predictions.  I could write on and on about how this is the Superbowl of movies, the epitome of my previous year, and so on - but I won’t bore you.  I am simply going to go through each major category, and say what will win, what should win, what should have been nominated, and who/what shouldn’t be there.  I will also predict every other category.  The numbers indicate how many of the nominees that I've seen.

To see a full list of nominees, click HERE.



Best Picture (10/10):
This is an interesting race, with ten solid films nominated.  Of the ten, only five are serious contenders (The Fighter, Black Swan, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit) - the films that were also nominated for Best Director.  Of these five, awards season has made it clear that it was a two-way race between The King’s Speech and The Social Network, with those two being virtually the only two that earned the various “best film” honors at other shows with similar voting pools.



Will Win:  The Social Network - Many say The King’s Speech will ride various guild awards to an Oscar win, but I still think TSN will take it.  I could be wrong, but that’s my prediction.



Should Win:  Toy Story 3 -  Due to the best animated film category, lack of a Best Director nomination, and a poor history for animated best picture contenders, there is no chance it will win.  But it should.  It was the most emotionally moving film, and did this while being accessible to all movie goers.  



Should Have Been Nominated:  Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World - I’m never done praising this movie, and it would be great for the Academy to recognize more than just one super surreal crazy inventive film (the other one is Inception...although Black Swan might count).  



Shouldn’t Have Been Nominated:  The Kids Are All Right - I liked this movie, but it was overrated.  I actually felt the movie didn’t treat it’s characters with respect they deserved, and while it’s a good movie, it’s not a great one.



Best Director (5/5):



Will Win:  David Fincher, The Social Network -  Tom Hooper of The King’s Speech has a chance, but not a very good one.  Whether or not TSN wins best picture, Fincher is a pretty sure thing here...pretty sure.



Should Win:  Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan - This movie was directed so well, that in weaker hands it would have just come off as absurd.  



Should Have Been Nominated:  Christopher Nolan, Inception - I don’t know what this guy needs to do to get nominated.  He directs well made, original movies that gross huge amounts of money, and still, he’s left out of the party.  One day.



Shouldn’t Be Here:  David O. Russell, The Fighter -  The movie in general lacked something for me - originality.  I didn’t find anything overly special in the direction.  It’s really a crime that he’s here, and Nolan is not.





Best Actress (5/5):



Will and Should Win:  Natalie Portman, Black Swan -  No doubt.  People are buzzing that Annette Bening could upset, but that really would be criminal.  What Portman did in Black Swan is the definition of Oscar worthy.



Should Have Been Nominated:  Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - I don’t know how the Academy could forget such a brilliant performance.

Shouldn’t Be Here:  Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine - She did a great job, but putting her head-to-head with Rapace, she loses.





Best Actor (5/5):


Will Win:  Colin Firth, The King’s Speech - The closest thing to a lock in the acting categories, Firth turned in a very strong title perfomance.  



Should Win:  James Franco, 127 Hours - Franco WAS 127 Hours.  Without a strong center, the film would have been terrible.  His performance reminded me of Tom Hanks in Cast Away.  And I mean that as a compliment.



Should Have Been Nominated:  Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine - I really appreciated the work Gosling turned in with Blue Valentine, and he was much better than...



Shouldn’t Be Here:  Jeff Bridges, True Grit - Okay, seriously.  All Bridges did was put on a cowboy hat and play the same role he did last year when he won (and rightly so) for Crazy Heart.   





Best Supporting Actress (5/5):


Will Win:  Melissa Leo, The Fighter - A few weeks ago, she was a lock.  Then she ran some controversial ads in film periodicals, and now things are nowhere near as positive.  A lot of her supporters may jump ship and go with Amy Adams also in The Fighter.  If this happens, their votes will split giving True Grit fans a victory with awarding Hailee Steinfeld the Oscar.  This very well might happen.  But I am still sticking with Leo.  Last year Mo’nique ticked a lot of people off during awards season, and she still won.  



Should Win:  Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom -  Yeah, I know, I haven’t shut up about her performance all awards season, so this is the last time I will say it - Weaver deserves this more than anyone.



Should Have Been Nominated:  Rosamund Pike, Barney’s Version - I haven’t reviewed this movie on my blog yet (I loved it), but Pike was tremendous.  She wasn’t better than Weaver in my opinion, but she brought something special to this little seen film.  I would have also liked to have seen Barbara Hershey for Black Swan.



Shouldn’t Be Here:  Helena Bonham-Carter, The King’s Speech - She was great, just not as good as the rest in her category, and, in my opinion, Pike and Hershey as mentioned above.  





Best Supporting Actor (5/5):


Will Win:  Christian Bale, The Fighter - Bale was excellent as a drugged-up boxer, the brother of Mickey Ward.  Personally I thought his character was a little too over the top, but I still think he was tremendous.



Should Win:  Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech - I think when the ‘best supporting actor’ award was invented, it was to honor performances exactly like this.  Rush was perfect as the speech therapist who supported the king.  I loved this part so much, and I hope he wins.


Should Have Been Nominated: Bill Murray, Get Low - I liked Get Low, and that was in large part to Murray's pitch-perfect comedic performance.


Shouldn't Be Here: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right - He was very good, just not as good as Murray..




And in the other categories....



Animated Feature Film (3/3):  Toy Story 3 should and will win.


Art Direction (4/5):  Alice in Wonderland will and should win.


Cinematography (5/5):  True Grit will and should win.


Costume Design (3/5):  Alice in Wonderland will win, and I could care less.


Documentary Feature (3/5):  I haven’t seen all the nominees, but Inside Job will win, whereas I loved Exit Through the Gift Shop.


Documentary Short Subject(0/5):  Poster Girl will win, but I haven’t seen any of them.


Film Editing (5/5):  The Social Network will win, Black Swan should win.


Foreign Language Film (1/5):  In a Better World will win, and I’ve only seen Biutiful and it doesn’t deserve to win.


Makeup (3/3):  The Wolfman will win, but I would love to see Barney’s Version win something.


Music Score (5/5):  The Social Network will win, but I liked the score best in How to Train Your Dragon.


Music Original Song (4/4):  “If I Rise” from 127 Hours will and should win.


Animated Short Film (5/5):  The Gruffalo will win, but I think The Lost Thing should - it’s so amazing.


Live Action Short Film (5/5):  Wish 143 will win, and I’m okay with that as it’s really good, but my favorite of all the nominees was The Crush.  I would be angry if Na Wewe won - it sounded great in the bio but was terrible.  Should not have been nominated.  Many are predicting that The Confession will win, but I really thought it was poorly done - a good idea though - but poorly done.


Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (10/10):  Both will go to Inception and while I am no expert on these categories, I would say it’s deserved.


Visual Effects (4/5):  Inception will win, and it should.  I was very happy though to see a nomination for Hereafter.  The tsunami scene at the beginning was the single best visual effects scene of the year.


Writing (Adapted Screenplay) (5/5):  The Social Network will win, but I would prefer a victory for 127 Hours.


Writing (Original Screenplay) (5/5):  The King’s Speech will win, but I think Inception should.



All right, that’s my round up.  I’ve seen all of the major nominees, but missed out on most of the documentaries and foreign films as the majority haven’t even opened up near me.  That’s okay, can’t catch them all.  I cannot wait to see how everything goes down tomorrow night!!  Thoughts?

Movie Review: THE ROOMMATE

photo © 2007 muuuusic | more info (via: Wylio)
There is nothing much really to say about "The Roommate" other than this girl-obsessed-with-girl flick is one of the most dull renditions of an already tired premise.  There are no A-list stars, no thrilling moments, and a poor, adorable kitten doesn't make it past her first birthday.    That being said, the CW quality film was oddly watchable, if nothing more than to see the two very attractive leads "act" - chalk it up to the whole gotta watch a wreck theory.  Despite warnings from critics and a friend (hi Tara!), I still decided to check it out as it didn't cost me anything.  I was wrong there though - it cost me my time.  It wasn't as bad as this year's The Green Hornet, but it came frighteningly close.  Avoid it.  I would give it a 3 out of 10.

Parental Take:  For a PG-13, it pushes it's limits with violence and sexual content.

If You Like The Roommate Try:  Well, if you liked this, you'll think Beyonce's Obsessed is the best picture of all time.

Movie Review: SOMEWHERE

photo © 2009 San Francisco Foghorn | more info (via: Wylio)
I want to tell you a story about Somewhere, the new movie directed by Sophia Coppola (Lost in Translation). About a week ago, my father and I went to a showing at a local theater.  We were the only two people there, despite the movie having only been out a few days.  When the movie ended, my father said something to the effect of "I cannot remember a time a hated a movie so much."  Which was funny, because I was left thinking "This was such a great movie."  Somewhere is bound to hit people different ways.  It's a different kind of film going experience, and I wouldn't suggest it for everyone.  Some movies tell a story simply and straight-forward.  Others, like Somewhere, really rely on things like symbolism and immense character development.  They present their ideas and thoughts in a completely unconventional way.  That's why I like Sophia Coppola, and that's why others might hate her.

The premise of the film revolves around one man, fictional actor Johnny Marco (Stephen Dorff), and his struggle to find meaning in life.  He spends most of his time either on the road promoting his movies, or at the Chateau Marmont hotel in LA.  There are scenes that seem endless - including the opening shot where the actor is driving around a race track....over, and over, and over, and yes, over.  My father said while only a minute in, he was about ready to yell at the screen.  This wasn't the only time this effective repetition was used.  These scenes were meant to put the viewer in the same state as our actor, but I'm sure many viewers will lose patience.  Eventually we meet Marco's daughter, played by Elle Fanning (Dakota's little sister).  The story moves slightly faster when she is introduced, but not much.   The two do a few things together, including going overseas to promote a film, and then the film ends.  I loved the ending, but I won't spoil it.

I would highly suggest seeing this very well made film, but again, remember, this isn't a normal movie.  While the movie site RottenTomatoes lists this film as FRESH (meaning at least 70% of critics liked it), only 49% of "real people" liked it.  It really is a coin toss.  But for me, I loved it.  I would give it an 8.5 out of 10.

Family Take:  Not suitable due to some nudity and profanity.

If You Like Somewhere Try:  This film is very similar to Lost in Translation.

Movie Review: ANOTHER YEAR

  

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How long did it take to watch Mike Leigh's new film?  Another Year indeed.  My word this was a long, drawn out movie.  But that is getting ahead of things.  I am a Mike Leigh fan - not his number one fan, but I've liked a couple of his past films (Vera Drake, Happy-Go-Lucky) quite a bit.  His latest British film runs about two and a half hours long, and deals with older people.  Older people talking.  And talking.  And talking.  And talking.  Some of their conversations are touching and heartfelt, while much of the dialog could be overheard while sitting in a senior center.

Told in four parts, seasons, the film centers on three people.  A happily married couple, and a slightly past middle aged woman who looks younger than she is, but this blessing only masks how unhappy she is with where her life is.  Their stories often interact, as do the stories of smaller characters who come and go throughout the film.

One thing that bothered me about this movie is that a few of the minor stories aren't resolved.  Maybe it's supposed to be a critique on life or something, but I like a little more closure.  I know movies like this are well made, I can appreciate that.  But I should not feel the need to check my watch a dozen times.  I think an editor could have hacked an hour off this movie easily and it would have been much, much better.  There were some great parts, but they are buried by endless conversations about day to day things.  I don't need to buy a ticket to this - I hear it every day.  I do want to give a BIG shout out though to Lesley Manville who turns in one of the best performances of the year.

So while I don't hate this movie, I do wish it were shorter.  I would give it a 6 out of 10.

Parental Take:  This movie is really pretty clean.  No sex.  No violence.  A couple of swears.  But children would not want to watch it, I can assure you.

If You Like Another Year Try:  One of my favorite movies that deals with aging is Away From Her.  It has more of a plot and less filler.

Movie Review: THE ILLUSIONIST

First off, this is not an old review of The Illusionist movie starring Edward Norton as the magician in question, this is a much different new French film from the makers of The Triplets of Belleville.  If you know me well, and have asked for an offbeat suggestion, I always offer up two movies right away - Mulholland Drive and The Triplets of Belleville.  Both of these films are brilliantly bizarre, and both are worth watching again and again.  That being said, I was eagerly awaiting the release of this new film.

Earning an Oscar nomination for best animated feature (beating out the likes of Tangled and Despicable Me), this Illusionist follows a magician later on in his career as he makes his way around Europe with his small one man, one rabbit show. He meets a young girl, and the two form a strange friendship.  The two settle down in an apartment - he works two jobs to support them, and she cleans, cooks, and then gets wrapped up in the finer things in life.  While this is a French film, there are virtually no subtitles - there is almost no dialog at all.

The animation is exceptional and weird, just what I was hoping for.  The story though was depressing, sad, and actually took aim at the current financial crisis in a round about way.  I couldn't believe the dark places this movie went.  While it wasn't blatantly inappropriate for children, I don't think any child should watch it as it basically says "life is tough, deal with it."  The end message, which I won't reveal, is tantamount to telling a kid that Santa doesn't exist.  This does not have the rewatchability that TOB does.

The negatives aside, this is a great movie from an animation standpoint.  I would still put it behind Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon as a composed film, but it's still worth seeing if you're over the age of 10.  I would give it a 7.5 out of 10.

Parental Take:  As I said in the review, the dark places this movie went shouldn't be seen by young children who still like having their movies happy and sweet.

If You Like The Illusionist Try:  The Triplets of Belleville.  It's a masterpiece.

Movie Review: RABBIT HOLE

photo © 2010 Tony Shek | more info (via: Wylio)
Based on the award-winning stage play about a couple dealing with the loss of a child, Rabbit Hole is an exquisitely acted, expertly told film adaptation.  Going into this Nicole Kidman, Aaron Eckhart film, I expected to appreciate the performances, but worried that the movie would suffer the same ill-transition from stage-to-screen that happen to so many plays and musicals.  I haven't seen the play, but from what I've read, I'm not alone in loving this movie.

The film centers on a relatively young couple, Becca and Howie, who are going through the day-to-day grind trying to deal with the death of their young son eight months prior.  They both cope in their different ways.  Becca is trying to erase all traces of their late son, while Howie tries to preserve his memory.  These different coping mechanisms lead to tension, stress, and disconnection for the couple.  A chance encounter with the accidental killer of their son also throws some interesting drama into the mix.  In addition to the great leads, Diane Wiest turns in an excellent performance as Becca's supportive, grieving mother.

One thing I feared was that this movie was going to be too dark to enjoy at all.  While it's not a feel-good film, it definitely has a lot worth thinking about, and was much more uplifting than I thought it would be.  The scenarios are mostly believable, and the dialog is as real as it comes.  With one minor flaw, this is a near-perfect drama.  I would give it an 8.5 out of 10.

Parental Take:  A few strong instances of profanity and the dark subject matter should keep young children away.

If You Like Rabbit Hole Try:  The pace of this movie reminded me of Michelle Pfeiffer's The Deep End of the Ocean.  It's a movie about reuniting with a child who was kidnapped years earlier.  Both movies strike the same sort of emotional chord.

Movie Review: THE COMPANY MEN

photo © 2009 Angela George | more info (via: Wylio)
It was just last year that we got Up in the Air, a timely, excellent film about the financial crisis as it pertains to the working man and woman.  This year, we get the Boston-set The Company Men, a Ben Affleck starring film that while nowhere near as a good as Up in the Air, still finds a few more things to add that aren't simply retreads of things we've already seen.

Affleck plays Bobby Walker, a newly laid-off executive who is too proud to admit to his friends that he's lost his job.  He's too proud to alter the way he lives, and at first tries to be very optimistic about his stressful situation.  As the poor job market begins to take it's toll through rejection after rejection, Walker begins to transform into more of an angry, stressed out individual.  This effects his family, his friends, and sets him on a different course that he never would have predicted for himself.  His former colleague, Gene (Tommy Lee Jones), pops up here and there with his own story, as do roles for Chris Cooper, Kevin Costner, Maria Bello, Rosemarie DeWitt, and Craig T. Nelson.

I really liked the way the film intertwined quite a few simple stories around the devastating, all-too-real premise of this poor job market.  This is no masterpiece - some of the story-lines are very predictable and clichéd.  These portions are matched though by a few really heartfelt and original ones.  For those portions, I would recommend this film.  I would give it a 6.5 out of 10.

Parental Take:  There is the standard Maria Bello boob shot (her agent must require it), and quite a bit of profanity which earn it the R.

If You Like The Company Men Try:  Without a doubt, Up in the Air.