The OSCAR Post

My predictions for EVERY Oscar that will be handed out tomorrow, as well as my thoughts on some of the biggest races.

WARNING:  I was having some formatting problems while writing this post.  Sorry if it's hard to read or broken up strangely on your screen.

Best Motion Picture

Argo
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty 

WILL WIN: Argo

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Silver Linings Playbook

SHOULD WIN: Silver Linings Playbook

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Cloud Atlas

SHOULDN'T BE NOMINATED: Les Misérables

THOUGHTS: I think this has been, overall, a great movie year. I actually would be happy with many of the films winning, but if you know me at all, you know Silver Linings Playbook won me over big time. That being said, only Les Mis and Life of Pi are out of place here – the rest all have things that I admired greatly, especially Beasts of the Southern Wild which I didn't expect to get nominated and find as much Oscar love as it did.

Achievement in Directing

Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

WILL WIN: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (he's, gasp, an underdog!!)

SHOULD WIN: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

SHOULDN'T BE NOMINATED: Michael Haneke, Amour

THOUGHTS: Everyone is complaining about a Ben Affleck snub, which is understandable. I was more shocked at Bigelow's omission though, as I thought the direction of Zero Dark Thirty was incredible. In my mind, it was just a little better than Argo so that's why I would say that was the biggest snub. I actually think this is a very strong category, and was thrilled Benh Zeitlin made the cut for such a daring film. He's my second choice – but I'm still pulling for Russell.

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

POSSIBLE SPOILER: No possible spoiler...it's a done deal.

SHOULD WIN: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

SHOULDN'T BE NOMINATED: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

THOUGHTS: Even people who didn't like Lincoln loved DDL. He's going to win. Any other name called on Oscar Sunday would instantly be considered the biggest shock this side of Marisa Tomei. Jackman was a joke, and that is the nicest thing I have to say about his “performance”. Trintignant carried Amour and was even better than his nominated costar, and I think his snub was worse than Affleck's for director.

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: This was the perfect five – the best category of the year.

SHOULDN'T BE NOMINATED: See above

THOUGHTS: I love the Academy when it comes to this category. A very strong case can be made for ALL the nominees here. I saw all of these movies and was moved by all of the performances. I will be excited for any of these ladies, but I'm really pulling for Lawrence because I think this might be the best chance Silver Linings Playbook has at winning any of the awards it's up for – and it deserves to win a bundle. That being said, I also remember saying this past summer after I came out of Beasts of the Southern Wild how cool it would be if Wallis won (she is the youngest nominee in this category EVER), and I don't feel any differently now.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin, Argo
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

WILL WIN: This changes every time I think about it. Right now, I'm leaning towards Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Anyone but Alan Arkin

SHOULD WIN: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

SHOULDN'T BE NOMINATED: Alan Arkin, Argo

THOUGHTS: This is a very strong category, and it's probably the biggest coin toss of any category. I have seen professional critics argue their cases for four of the five (not Arkin), and I like all their arguments. I think it's a crime that Dwight Henry was left out...because I would pick him as the should win. That not being an option, I thought Tommy Lee Jones was incredible and I think he's got it. Lincoln has lost a ton of steam heading into tomorrow, but I think voters may want to honor it somehow, and Jones winning might be the perfect way to do just that.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, The Master
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Sally Field, Lincoln

WILL WIN: Sadly Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Sally Field, Lincoln

SHOULD WIN: Helen Hunt, The Sessions

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Ann Dowd, Compliance

SHOULDN'T BE NOMINATED: Hathaway, Field, Weaver (even though I love her)

THOUGHTS: Where the best actress field was incredibly strong, this group is absolutely terrible. I can't weigh in on Adams as The Master is the only big film of this year's nominees I didn't see, but Field was irritating, Hathway lost some weight and sang bad karaoke, Weaver was very nice but not Oscar-worthy, and Helen Hunt got naked a lot. So I'm giving my imaginary vote to the one that got naked, because she managed to do so much emotionally with her character while wearing so little.

Best Animated Feature Film

Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

WILL WIN: Brave

POSSIBLE SPOILER: Wreck-It Ralph

SHOULD WIN: Wreck-It Ralph

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Don't have any ideas

SHOULDN'T BE NOMINATED: Meh

THOUGHTS: In a year with a weak Pixar outing (Brave), and a crop of good but not great animated films, this one could go to a few of the nominees with no major shock or awe from the audience. Frankenweenie has been coming on strong in the world of buzz lately, but the two way battle of Wreck-It Ralph and Brave probably dominated most ballots, and I think Brave has the ever so slight edge.

Original Screenplay

Amour, Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

WILL WIN: Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

SHOULD WIN: Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino

Adapted Screenplay

Argo, Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, David Magee
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

WILL WIN: Lincoln, Tony Kushner

SHOULD WIN: Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

Best Foreign-Language Film

A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Amour (Austria)
No (Chile)
War Witch (Canada)
Kontiki (Norway)

WILL WIN: Amour (The SUREST bet of the night)

SHOULD WIN: Amour (Although that's the only one I've seen...I've heard GREAT things about NO)

Original Score

Anna Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Skyfall, Thomas Newman

WILL WIN: Lincoln, John Williams

SHOULD WIN: Cloud Atlas (Not nominated)

Original Song

"Before My Time," J. Ralph; Chasing Ice
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend," Walter Murphy and Seth McFarlane; Ted
"Pi's Lullaby," Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri; Life of Pi
"Skyfall," Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth; Skyfall
"Suddenly," Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boulil; Les Misérables 

WILL WIN: Skyfall by Adele

SHOULD WIN: Skyfall by Adele (Although wouldn't it be hilarious if Seth McFarlane won!!)

Achievement in Production Design

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

WILL WIN: Anna Karenina

SHOULD WIN: Cloud Atlas (not nominated)

Achievement in Cinematography

Anna Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins

WILL WIN: Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski

SHOULD WIN: Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda

Achievement in Costume Design

Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood

WILL WIN: Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran

SHOULD WIN: Don't care, so long as Les Mis doesn't

Best Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for a Sugar Man

WILL WIN: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary Short Subject

Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption

WILL WIN: Open Heart

Achievement in Film Editing

Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

WILL WIN: Argo

SHOULD WIN: Life of Pi

Achievement in Makeup & Hairstyling

Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables

WILL WIN: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

SHOULD WIN: Cloud Atlas (shockingly not nominated)

Best Animated Short Film

Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
Paperman

WILL WIN: Paperman!

SHOULD WIN: Paperman! (I loved this short!)

Best Live-Action Short Film

Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry

WILL WIN: Curfew

Achievement in Sound Editing

Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

WILL WIN: Zero Dark Thirty

Achievement in Sound Mixing

Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

WILL WIN: Les Miserables

Achievement in Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

WILL WIN: Life of Pi

SHOULD WIN: Life of Pi