WARNING: I was having some formatting problems while writing this post. Sorry if it's hard to read or broken up strangely on your screen.
Best
Motion Picture
Argo
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
WILL
WIN: Argo
POSSIBLE
SPOILER: Silver Linings Playbook
SHOULD
WIN: Silver Linings Playbook
SHOULD
HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Cloud Atlas
SHOULDN'T
BE NOMINATED: Les Misérables
THOUGHTS:
I
think this has been, overall, a great movie year. I actually would
be happy with many of the films winning, but if you know me at all,
you know Silver
Linings Playbook won
me over big time. That being said, only Les Mis and Life of Pi are
out of place here – the rest all have things that I admired
greatly, especially Beasts
of the Southern Wild which
I didn't expect to get nominated and find as much Oscar love as it
did.
Achievement
in Directing
Ang
Lee, Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
WILL
WIN: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
POSSIBLE
SPOILER: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (he's, gasp, an underdog!!)
SHOULD
WIN: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
SHOULD
HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
SHOULDN'T
BE NOMINATED: Michael Haneke, Amour
THOUGHTS:
Everyone
is complaining about a Ben Affleck snub, which is understandable. I
was more shocked at Bigelow's omission though, as I thought the
direction of Zero
Dark Thirty was
incredible. In my mind, it was just a little better than Argo
so
that's why I would say that was the biggest snub. I actually think
this is a very strong category, and was thrilled Benh Zeitlin made
the cut for such a daring film. He's my second choice – but I'm
still pulling for Russell.
Performance
by an Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley
Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
WILL
WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
POSSIBLE
SPOILER: No possible spoiler...it's a done deal.
SHOULD
WIN: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
SHOULD
HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
SHOULDN'T
BE NOMINATED: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
THOUGHTS:
Even
people who didn't like Lincoln loved DDL. He's going to win. Any
other name called on Oscar Sunday would instantly be considered the
biggest shock this side of Marisa Tomei. Jackman was a joke, and
that is the nicest thing I have to say about his “performance”.
Trintignant carried Amour and was even better than his nominated
costar, and I think his snub was worse than Affleck's for director.
Performance
by an Actress in a Leading Role
Emmanuelle
Riva, Amour
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
WILL
WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
POSSIBLE
SPOILER: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
SHOULD
WIN: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
SHOULD
HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: This was the perfect five – the best category
of the year.
SHOULDN'T
BE NOMINATED: See above
THOUGHTS:
I
love the Academy when it comes to this category. A very strong case
can be made for ALL the nominees here. I saw all of these movies and
was moved by all of the performances. I will be excited for any of
these ladies, but I'm really pulling for Lawrence because I think
this might be the best chance Silver
Linings Playbook has
at winning any of the awards it's up for – and it deserves to win a
bundle. That being said, I also remember saying this past summer
after I came out of Beasts
of the Southern Wild how
cool it would be if Wallis won (she is the youngest nominee in this
category EVER), and I don't feel any differently now.
Performance
by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan
Arkin, Argo
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
WILL
WIN: This changes every time I think about it. Right now, I'm
leaning towards Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
POSSIBLE
SPOILER: Anyone but Alan Arkin
SHOULD
WIN: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
SHOULD
HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Dwight Henry, Beasts
of the Southern Wild
SHOULDN'T
BE NOMINATED: Alan Arkin, Argo
THOUGHTS:
This
is a very strong category, and it's probably the biggest coin toss of
any category. I have seen professional critics argue their cases for
four of the five (not Arkin), and I like all their arguments. I
think it's a crime that Dwight Henry was left out...because I would
pick him as the should win. That not being an option, I thought
Tommy Lee Jones was incredible and I think he's got it. Lincoln has
lost a ton of steam heading into tomorrow, but I think voters may
want to honor it somehow, and Jones winning might be the perfect way
to do just that.
Performance
by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy
Adams, The Master
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Sally Field, Lincoln
WILL
WIN: Sadly Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
POSSIBLE
SPOILER: Sally Field, Lincoln
SHOULD
WIN: Helen Hunt, The Sessions
SHOULD
HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Ann Dowd, Compliance
SHOULDN'T
BE NOMINATED: Hathaway, Field, Weaver (even though I love her)
THOUGHTS:
Where
the best actress field was incredibly strong, this group is
absolutely terrible. I can't weigh in on Adams as The
Master is
the only big film of this year's nominees I didn't see, but Field was
irritating, Hathway lost some weight and sang bad karaoke, Weaver was
very nice but not Oscar-worthy, and Helen Hunt got naked a lot. So
I'm giving my imaginary vote to the one that got naked, because she
managed to do so much emotionally with her character while wearing so
little.
Best
Animated Feature Film
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
WILL
WIN: Brave
POSSIBLE
SPOILER: Wreck-It Ralph
SHOULD
WIN: Wreck-It Ralph
SHOULD
HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Don't have any ideas
SHOULDN'T
BE NOMINATED: Meh
THOUGHTS:
In
a year with a weak Pixar outing (Brave),
and a crop of good but not great animated films, this one could go to
a few of the nominees with no major shock or awe from the audience.
Frankenweenie
has
been coming on strong in the world of buzz lately, but the two way
battle of Wreck-It
Ralph and
Brave
probably
dominated most ballots, and I think Brave
has
the ever so slight edge.
Original
Screenplay
Amour, Michael
Haneke
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
WILL
WIN: Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
SHOULD
WIN: Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Adapted
Screenplay
Argo, Chris
Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, David Magee
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, David Magee
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
WILL
WIN: Lincoln, Tony Kushner
SHOULD
WIN: Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Best
Foreign-Language Film
A
Royal Affair (Denmark)
Amour (Austria)
No (Chile)
War Witch (Canada)
Kontiki (Norway)
Amour (Austria)
No (Chile)
War Witch (Canada)
Kontiki (Norway)
WILL
WIN: Amour (The SUREST bet of the night)
SHOULD
WIN: Amour (Although that's the only one I've seen...I've heard
GREAT things about NO)
Original
Score
Anna
Karenina, Dario Marianelli
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Skyfall, Thomas Newman
Argo, Alexandre Desplat
Life of Pi, Mychael Danna
Lincoln, John Williams
Skyfall, Thomas Newman
WILL
WIN: Lincoln, John Williams
SHOULD
WIN: Cloud Atlas (Not nominated)
Original
Song
"Before
My Time," J. Ralph; Chasing Ice
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend," Walter Murphy and Seth McFarlane; Ted
"Pi's Lullaby," Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri; Life of Pi
"Skyfall," Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth; Skyfall
"Suddenly," Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boulil; Les Misérables
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend," Walter Murphy and Seth McFarlane; Ted
"Pi's Lullaby," Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri; Life of Pi
"Skyfall," Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth; Skyfall
"Suddenly," Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boulil; Les Misérables
WILL
WIN: Skyfall by Adele
SHOULD
WIN: Skyfall by Adele (Although wouldn't it be hilarious if Seth
McFarlane won!!)
Achievement
in Production Design
Anna
Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
WILL
WIN: Anna Karenina
SHOULD
WIN: Cloud Atlas (not nominated)
Achievement
in Cinematography
Anna
Karenina, Seamus McGarvey
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins
Django Unchained, Robert Richardson
Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
Skyfall, Roger Deakins
WILL
WIN: Lincoln, Janusz Kaminski
SHOULD
WIN: Life of Pi, Claudio Miranda
Achievement
in Costume Design
Anna
Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood
Les Misérables, Paco Delgado
Lincoln, Joanna Johnston
Mirror Mirror, Eiko Ishioka
Snow White and the Huntsman, Colleen Atwood
WILL
WIN: Anna Karenina, Jacqueline Durran
SHOULD
WIN: Don't care, so long as Les Mis doesn't
Best
Documentary Feature
5
Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for a Sugar Man
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for a Sugar Man
WILL
WIN: Searching for Sugar Man
Best
Documentary Short Subject
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
WILL
WIN: Open Heart
Achievement
in Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
WILL
WIN: Argo
SHOULD
WIN: Life of Pi
Achievement
in Makeup & Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
WILL
WIN: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
SHOULD
WIN: Cloud Atlas (shockingly not nominated)
Best
Animated Short Film
Adam
and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
Paperman
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
Paperman
WILL
WIN: Paperman!
SHOULD
WIN: Paperman! (I loved this short!)
Best
Live-Action Short Film
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry
WILL
WIN: Curfew
Achievement
in Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
WILL
WIN: Zero Dark Thirty
Achievement
in Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
WILL
WIN: Les Miserables
Achievement
in Visual Effects
The
Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
WILL
WIN: Life of Pi
SHOULD
WIN: Life of Pi
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